Now his threat to invade Ukraine again is a tacit admission that his efforts to bring Kyiv to heel have failed. His bullying has pushed away those in Ukraine who might have been willing to work with Russia. Pro-Kremlin political parties won elections in Ukraine as early as a decade ago. But after Russia seized Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 and launched relentless efforts to destabilize the government, more than two-thirds of Ukrainians in a recent poll described their neighbor as a hostile state — barely a decade after the country elected a pro-Russian government under Viktor Yanukovych. George Kennan once commented that “the jealous and intolerant eye of the Kremlin can distinguish, in the end, only vassals and enemies, and the neighbors of Russia, if they do not wish to be one, must reconcile themselves to being the other.” Putin’s attempt to make Ukraine a vassal has turned it into an enemy.

He’s done the same thing with NATO. As recently as a year ago, the organization’s future was in jeopardy. President Donald Trump threatened to pull U.S. troops out of Europe and belittled the alliance on a regular basis. His actions even forced a secret rear-guard action by members of his Cabinet and NATO officials to protect the institution. Some European leaders started musing about creating separate European security institutions outside of the trans-Atlantic alliance. But Putin’s saber-rattling over the past month has rejuvenated NATO and reminded its members why it exists. Even traditionally neutral states like Finland and Sweden are reconsidering their stance. In his New Year’s address to the nation, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto affirmed, “And let it be stated once again: Finland’s room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.”