With these national numbers as a context, what about party identification among Hispanic Americans? Gallup interviewed 1,338 Hispanic respondents in 2021, and the results show this group followed the same basic trends in party identification as noted nationally, although in a more muted fashion. Hispanic Americans’ party identification shifted from a 32-point Democratic advantage from January through June (58% Democrat to 26% Republican) to a 28-point Democratic advantage from July through December (54% to 26%). This reflected a four-point decrease in Hispanic Americans’ Democratic identification from the first half of the year to the second half; Republican identification was constant.

The aforementioned Wall Street Journal poll showing a tie among Hispanic Americans on the congressional trial heat ballot was in the field Nov. 16-22, which coincided with the shift observed in these Gallup data in the second half of the year. But the change in Gallup’s party identification data among Hispanic people was relatively slight. The 28-point Democratic advantage among Hispanic adults in the second half of the year in Gallup data certainly does not provide support for a generalization from the Journal’s November poll that Hispanic voters will split their choice between the two parties in this year’s congressional election.