But an ideal policy for Ukraine is not coming any time soon. Russia’s threats and coercion of Ukraine have revealed division in NATO. Croatia has already said it would not participate in any NATO action against Russia in Ukraine. This partly vindicates critics of NATO’s promiscuous expansion, which included under its security umbrella states that have a significant native pro-Russian sentiment, and insignificant military resources. Countries like Croatia and Montenegro can contribute nothing meaningful to NATO except setting a standard for internal dissension.

However, the most significant dissension comes from NATO’s second-largest economy. Germany, already suffering from a major surge in energy prices, has signaled serious hesitation about economic sanctions of Russia should it invade Ukraine. French president Emmanuel Macron, at the very moment of NATO’s crisis, has suddenly demanded a public rethink of Europe’s security. And the dithering does start at the top too, with President Joe Biden all but signaling that smaller-scale violations of Ukraine would be tolerated.

Russia has flipped over the table. Putin has put pressure on Ukraine. The only useful response from NATO and the Western powers would be to clearly signal precisely what they are willing to do and what they are not willing to do for Ukraine in the near term and medium term. Without this, Ukraine cannot sensibly conduct a diplomatic effort to avoid catastrophe.