The Trump-DeSantis tensions will lead to a test of strength

The counterargument, for Trump, is that losing another general election would be much harder to spin as another robbery and that losing a Republican primary would be crushing. Also, Trump never really seemed to enjoy carrying out the duties of the presidency, as opposed to basking in the glow of the office. If Trump declined to run in 2024 and backed the winner of the Republican primary, he would no longer be the center of attention, but he would also ascend to a status where he could no longer be touched. He could hold all the campaign rallies he wanted, and then (as in the past), if his candidate lost, he could just blame the candidate. If DeSantis enters the 2024 primary and Trump supports him, it would be an almost unstoppable combination, and one that would stand a strong chance of winning back the White House (based on how the political environment looks today) .

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For DeSantis, his relative youth and the fate of nearly everyone else in the party who has attempted a direct, open confrontation with Trump would seem to argue for waiting. But presidential politics is all about exploiting the right moment. Barack Obama could have waited out Hillary Clinton in 2008. Bill Clinton could have waited out George H. W. Bush in 1992. Chris Christie shouldn’t have waited in 2012, when he fit the mood of the party and the nation, and before he torched his own brand. Elizabeth Warren shouldn’t have waited in 2016, when there was a populist mood in both parties and an opening that Bernie Sanders exploited but couldn’t quite complete. Mario Cuomo shouldn’t have waited in 1992 and watched his moment expire. (Sometimes, the moment doesn’t align: Nikki Haley was ideally positioned in 2018 but has been eclipsed since then.) It seems unlikely that a moment demanding Ron DeSantis will last forever.

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