Why should we assume Biden has hit bottom? Successful policy initiatives appear to drive popularity upward, academics agree, and policy failures, such as a defeated legislative agenda, drive it down. As his ambitious plans got whittled down and then were finally shipped off to Blue Plains, the crowd that had previously been ga-ga for Biden now took to expressing their disappointment in him to the pollsters. With no more campaign pledges to renege on — and discounting other disasters like an Ebola outbreak or World War III over Ukraine — it’s hard to imagine any additional diehard Biden supporters will desert him and cause his ratings to tumble lower. The only presidents to have rated lower in the Gallup Polls were Harry Truman (22 percent, during the Korean War), Richard Nixon (24 percent on his way out the door) and Jimmy Carter (28 percent, during wild inflation). When you’ve fallen into the subbasement, as Biden truly has, then almost any vertical improvement looks like a comeback.

As presidential scholars tell us, a rising economy lifts all incumbents’ boats. It isn’t exactly morning in America yet, but things are looking up. We just may be turning the corner on Covid. Despite the burst of inflation and supply chain hassles, the economic signs look great. Unemployment is down. Wages are up. Signing bonuses are common. People are quitting their bad jobs for better ones. Consumers are buying lots of stuff. If the current economic trends continue into the summer, Democratic candidates on the hustings will have a positive story to tell voters. Had the Build Back Better behemoth passed, the Republicans would have campaigned against big government and more taxes. Instead, with no new taxes in the immediate offing, Biden Democrats have denied Republicans their primary issue, leaving Biden and his followers yet another popularity-enhancing chapter to read to constituents.