“This was going to ravage the country far beyond what it is now,” Trump said of the success of the vaccines during his December appearance with O’Reilly in Texas. Trump implored his supporters: “Take credit for it. Take credit for it. Don’t let them take it away. Don’t take it away from ourselves.”

Those remarks weren’t just vintage Trump braggadocio. They’re likely also smart politics, as they provide an opening to win back some suburban voters that fled from him toward Biden in 2020. Sixty-seven percent of suburban residents were vaccinated as of August, according to a late summer NBC News poll. That was below the 79 percent of urban residents who got the vaccine, but well above the 52 percent of rural residents, where support for Trump runs deep. Even Biden gave credit to the Trump administration for the development of the Covid vaccine and for getting a booster shot.

It’s unclear that a pure anti-vaccine message is a winner in the 2024 Republican primary fight. Yes, vaccine opposition is highest among Republicans (along with young adults). But that still leaves millions of primary voters who got the vaccines. So Trump’s positioning could also further push DeSantis into fighting for a fringe of the GOP electorate rather than the broader coalition necessary to win the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.