Ultimately, though, this is a bigger problem for Democrats, who ought to be capitalizing on Republican dysfunction. Think of who the gettable voters are. They don’t like Trump, but they also don’t like the progressive agenda. But which side do they fear most? For a lot of average Americans, defending democracy feels esoteric, while keeping their families safe and making sure their kids are getting a good education is urgent and real. Suppose you were a college-educated suburbanite who doesn’t obsess about politics. Which “tribe” poses the most danger to you?

It’s also a bigger problem for Democrats because in big cities, including New York, they’re usually the only game in town. If that means that its leadership is always getting decided in party primaries that tend to pull voters further and further to the left, then those leaders—the faces of the party—are inevitably going to be a drag on its national prospects.

Of course, what happens in New York City and Chicago does not necessarily reflect the rest of the country. Still, these are trends that are being played out in a lot of other cities, and the biggest cities will always have a disproportionate impact on our perceptions.