The message is that Democrats believe they’re going to lose this November. Historically, a new president’s party loses a lot of seats in that president’s first midterm elections. Indeed, in fall 2018, when House Republicans were heading for the exits, Gallup reported that the average loss for a party, when its president stood below 50% in job approval rating, was 37 seats. And in 2018, with an unpopular President Donald Trump in the White House, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House. Before that happened, though, a total of 34 Republicans decided not to run for reelection. They could see what was coming.

So now an unpopular President Joe Biden is well below 50% in job approval rating. And Democrats control the House by a dangerously narrow five-seat majority. Given history, and given the public’s growing unhappiness with Biden and his party, what are the chances Democrats will somehow keep that majority? It appears many Democrats believe those chances are slim to none. So 25 of them — so far — have chosen not to run again. Maybe that number will increase to match the 34 Republicans who bailed in 2018. But even if it doesn’t, that’s a lot of departures for a party with the barest of majorities.