Biden won in 2020 as the candidate of normalcy in a country riven by White House Twitter tantrums, riots and rising crime, political polarization, and a pandemic with no end in sight. It was the last crisis people most hoped he would solve: Exit polls showed Biden winning voters whose top issue was the coronavirus by 66 points.

All of the above problems continue to rage, but the persistence of the pandemic has the greatest potential to undermine public confidence in Biden’s leadership. It remained an area of relative strength even as his job approval ratings dropped on other issues. Moreover, the spread of Omicron among the vaccinated is likely to deepen vaccine hesitancy while radicalizing the most COVID-conscious of Biden’s base, making them cry out for untenable regulations to save them.