4. Independent Voters

With Democrats feeling less enthusiastic, and Republicans united in opposition, Democrats can ill-afford to lose support from independent-leaning voters. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what’s happening. And, is similar to what happened in the previous midterms.

Since 2010, the sitting president entered the fall of the midterm election year with a job approval rating among independents anywhere between 38 and 45 percent. In all three of those midterm elections, the party in the White House lost independent voters by double-digits.

The most recent Gallup polling puts Biden’s job approval ratings among independents at 40 percent, not much better than President Trump’s 38 percent rating in October of 2018.

The good news for Biden is that, unlike Trump, he began his presidency with some goodwill among independent voters. From February until June, opinions of Biden among independent voters ranged from 50 percent to 58 percent. Meanwhile, opinions of Trump among independents were always more negative than positive. Trump’s approval ratings among independent voters never broke out of the mid-to-high 30 percent range for all of 2017 and 2018.