Kelly Tshibaka, (R-AK), U.S. Senate

Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski has beaten intra-party attempts to unseat her before—she was famously the second senator in history to win by write-in after a Tea Party candidate beat her in the 2010 primary—but she’s never faced a rival with the backing of a former president.

Tshibaka, the former commissioner of Alaska’s Department of Administration, hopes to become the second Republican to beat Murkowski in the state’s primary this year, and is aggressively supported by Trump, who has sought political vengeance against each of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict him in his second impeachment trial. Murkowski has already been censured by the state’s Republican Party for her vote, and the relatively little-known Tshibaka has embraced the “MAGA”-style rhetoric of many of her upstart peers.

Although Alaska’s party politics are more complex than most states—and Tshibaka’s past support for so-called “conversion therapy” and opposition to “witchcraft” may be out of step even with many Trump supporters—the race could still end up being a repeat of 2010, particularly with the Alaska Republican Party’s opposition to Murkowski even calling herself a Republican.