Perhaps more than any other Republican officeholder, the governor of Florida has figured out how to be a political brawler without looking like a pale imitation of Donald Trump. He has picked his own fights on his own terms, drawing national attention for belligerently snubbing measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 and calling Dr. Anthony Fauci, “the most destructive bureaucrat in the history of our country.” Even a devastating summer spike in the Sunshine State hasn’t dulled DeSantis’ edge. Last month he signed a law banning local school boards from imposing mask mandates and curtailing the ability of private business from issuing employee vaccine mandates.

Thanks to his persistent pugnacity and purple state location, DeSantis has broken out of the GOP pack. In 2024 primary polls that don’t include Trump, DeSantis has almost always held the lead.

However, like everyone else, he doesn’t fare well in polls that do include Trump. And he hasn’t done anything to establish a rationale for running against Trump. What he has done is annoy Trump for not ruling out a run against Trump.

The one thing DeSantis absolutely has to do next year is win reelection as governor, and while he starts the campaign as the favorite, he’s not a lock.