Further bolstering the case that Putin is only pretending to lose touch with reality is that his demands are consistent with what he has been saying for nearly 15 years. In a 2007 speech in Munich, Putin argued that Russia was promised that, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO would not expand to Eastern Europe. This history is debatable. What is not debatable is that large majorities in countries that were once under the sway of the Soviet Union favored joining the NATO alliance. Putin’s proposal ignored the right to self determination of Poles, Latvians and others.

Nonetheless, Putin’s 2007 speech telegraphed his foreign policy. The following year, Russian forces invaded the republic of Georgia and to this day occupy two of its provinces. In 2014, Putin invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. In 2015, Russia entered the Syrian civil war and saved the dictator’s regime.

So does Putin really believe that the country whose territory he has annexed is the real aggressor? Probably not. Does he really believe the U.S. would provide Ukraine with some of its most advanced military technology? Again, probably not.

But Putin clearly benefits from the perception that he is volatile enough to make good on his latest threats. If Biden believed Putin was rational, he would likely call Putin’s bluff. Instead, he is attempting to coax Putin into defusing a crisis that the Russian leader himself has created.