These are just a couple of data points, compiled in the very early — and not necessarily representative — stages of the new wave. But taken together, they do suggest the possibility that, as virologist Trevor Bedford warned several weeks ago, Delta and Omicron may be sufficiently distinct that the growth of Omicron doesn’t mean the end of Delta, but that the two ongoing waves are running basically in parallel.
And if the two variants are competing for hosts in two separate populations, it may only be among the vaccinated or previously infected that the new variant has a significant advantage — and that among the vulnerable unvaccinated, Delta may be able to very well hold its own or even outlast Omicron, continuing to infect people and cause severe illness and death after the Omicron wave has crashed. This hypothesis may help explain both why Omicron is producing a significant reduction in severe outcomes, at least for now, and why the ongoing Delta wave that preceded it does not yet appear to be receding all that quickly. It also suggests a relatively pessimistic outcome, even if Omicron proves to be relatively mild: that the new variant might burn through the country, infecting huge numbers of people, without giving them much additional immune protection going forward — against future variants or against the Delta strain that is still killing 1,300 Americans a day on average.
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