Will Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, up in 2022, vote for a bill that creates large new entitlements and blows up the deficit while raising taxes on business, and cutting them dramatically for the affluent professionals in blue states?

What about Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, also up in 2022, or Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, where President Biden’s 2020 margin was less than a percentage point?

Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia would likely vote for the bill even if it had a $20 trillion price tag, but an on-the-record vote will also hand his GOP opponent more ammunition next year. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana isn’t up for re-election until 2024, but his self-branding as a moderate in a red state would be destroyed by a vote for the most far-reaching expansion of the welfare state in decades.

As for Mr. Manchin, a poll last month showed 74% of West Virginia voters oppose the Build Back Better Act, and President Biden’s approval rating is under water by 33 points.