Much remains unknown about the dynamics of Omicron, and new evidence is emerging as rapidly, it seems, as the variant is spreading. But we know enough to anticipate some key features, particularly the variant’s unprecedented transmissibility. We should now expect a very large wave of infections—one that is gathering steam already in New York City, and will spread quickly throughout the country. We will see cases rise rapidly in the next few weeks, likely peaking sometime in mid-January. With any luck, cases will then fall as quickly as they rose, getting to very low numbers by the end of February. All of this suggests that the work ahead is to manage the next six to eight weeks.

Given the transmissibility of this virus, nothing short of a hard lockdown will prevent a large spike in cases. That is the path the Netherlands has taken. But at this point in the pandemic, in our country, a lockdown would fail because too many Americans would refuse to comply. Thankfully, we can take a very different approach.

First, we need more vaccinations. Vaccines remain the most powerful and effective tool in our arsenal. Back in the spring, these game-changing shots heralded what seemed like the end of the pandemic. The virus’s evolution and the vaccinated population’s waning immunity has quashed those hopes. At this point, it’s clear that protection against both Delta and Omicron requires three vaccine doses. This is not novel; lots of vaccines require three or even four doses. Unfortunately, this idea has not yet settled into the minds of most Americans.