Beyond the fact that Manchin is clearly holding the steering wheel in these negotiations, he also happens to be correct on this particular issue. As much as they’ve tried to pretend otherwise, Democrats are obviously playing shell games by setting funding to sunset early with the hope that, down the line, these programs will be re-upped. But more than that, it’s a dangerous shell game. Democrats are gambling that their new programs will be so popular that Republicans will have no choice but to continue them when they come up for renewal, much as they had no choice but to let the Affordable Care Act live on under Donald Trump. The big difference is that Obamacare was in place permanently; Republicans needed a majority in the Senate to repeal it, which meant a handful of moderates could scuttle their efforts. As a matter of pure vote counting, it’s much easier to simply let programs lapse. The GOP may also face less political pressure back home to keep the planks of BBB in place than progressives expect, because states have to opt in to many of its programs, such as its child care and pre-K reforms, and many Republican governors are already signaling they won’t participate.

Passing legislation on a temporary basis isn’t just risky; it also makes for worse policy in this case. After all, even some blue or purple states may choose not to participate in these programs if they can’t count on permanent funding, which will reduce their reach. That in turn could further weaken the political support that’s supposed to keep them alive