BERGEN: You predicted in April 2020 that there could be 800,000 deaths in the United States in 18 months, and we’re now at 790,000-plus deaths right around that 18-month time frame. How did you make that prediction?

OSTERHOLM: I based my estimates at the time on historic data from previous pandemics.

What is troubling to me is our fascination with modeling. I think modeling, particularly when it’s erroneous, can be very detrimental. I’ve watched so many different estimates of case numbers from these models taken literally by policymakers and the public and particularly the media.

The reality is you can’t model beyond 30 days out. Just look at what is happening right now. We can’t even predict why these surges occur or when they occur. Who, 30 days ago, could have developed a model that would accurately predict what we’re seeing right now with Omicron? Who could have predicted that?