After Webster, the tone of the political debate clearly shifted. Where once abortion rights supporters were tentative and defensive about making the issue central to their appeals, abortion opponents found themselves in a more defensive posture in the new environment. That could be even more the case if Roe is overturned.

The Webster decision had an immediate impact in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections that took place a few months after the decision. Democrats Douglas L. Wilder in Virginia and James J. Florio in New Jersey effectively used the threat to legal abortion to win their races. Wilder and Florio made the issue front and center in their appeals and their opponents struggled to find their footing…

If Roe is overturned, its effect will burn into the fall and beyond as the battle over abortion’s legality shifts to states. Where might it be felt in 2022? For starters, look to gubernatorial races in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states where Republicans control the legislature and might be inclined to enact restrictive bans on abortion but where the governor’s mansions are in the hands of the Democrats.