Analysts and former officials warn of a scenario during a tight 2024 vote count in which a senior state official in Georgia, or perhaps Arizona or Wisconsin, refuses to certify the Democratic nominee’s apparent Electoral College win there. That same state official would be hand-picked for this moment by Trump and his loyalists. In this hypothetical — for now — future, Trump appears publicly soon after, declaring victory and promising revenge against anyone who opposed him when his second term begins in two months.

But outside the Mar-a-Lago ballroom, a constitutional crisis already is developing.

“It’s Trump’s not-so-secret weapon, if he does run again,” said former Rep. David Jolly, R-Fla. “The proper way to view all of this is through a presidential cycle lens. Because it’s always about him.”

“The goal here is to prevent certification of Electoral College votes in enough places that could help Trump get to 270,” Jolly said, referring to the number of electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. “It’s not simply a legal matter after this kind of scenario. Sure, the Constitution is there to protect us, but in a situation like that, which Trump tried to make happen in 2020, it’s anybody’s … guess what happens next.”