Recent history, however, suggests that it won’t be easy – or speedy — to gain back support from independents. Once the honeymoon ends for many of these voters, it’s over. For example, Gallup polling showed that Pres. Obama, like Biden, started with a reservoir of goodwill among independent voters. Like Biden, Obama’s approval ratings among those voters also slipped pretty substantially in his first year, from 63 percent in February to 44 percent in November of 2009.

However, it wasn’t until October of 2012 that Obama broke into positive territory with independent voters. That improvement helped Obama win re-election. Even so, it was a short-lived gain. Opinions of Obama among independents slipped yet again in 2013 and didn’t recover until 2016.

Unlike Trump, Biden has enjoyed positive marks from independent voters throughout his presidency. What we don’t know is whether they’re willing to give him another chance. That decision will determine just how much ground Biden can make up (or not) before 2022.