Historically, though, it takes time for the microenvironment (i.e. individual seat designations) to catch up to what the macroenvironment (i.e. generic congressional ballot) indicates will happen. Moreover, we know from past years that the generic ballot at this point in midterm cycles tends to underestimate the tailwinds the opposition party will have at their backs come election time.
You can see these phenomena by looking at the Cook Political Report and Crystal Ball ratings. Right now, Cook and the Crystal Ball have three Democratic senators (Mark Kelly in Arizona, Raphael Warnock in Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada) in races rated as tossups. They also have the GOP-held seat in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring, as a tossup. Both have New Hampshire as leaning Democratic. President Joe Biden won all of these states by 7 points or less last year.
If trends in past years hold, the races designated as tossups are more likely to lean Republican come election time. In other words, Republicans are projected to win those states about 7 in 10 times. This makes sense given the fact that Biden barely won these tossup state in 2020 and 2022 is shaping up to be a more pro-Republican year.
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