Trump’s most potent means of retaining his hold on his party is perpetuating the idea that he’ll be back on the ballot in three years. Whether he goes through with launching a reelection campaign may be beside the point. Stepping aside would be tantamount to inviting a slew of Republican candidates to jump in the 2024 presidential-nomination race and fill the space he’s vacating. Trump is not about to let his relevancy plummet.

“Imagine what would happen if he said, ‘After careful consideration, I won’t be a candidate in 2024,’” John Bolton, the former Trump White House national security adviser, told me. “You can hear the spotlight switches turning off. He’ll talk about it [running for president again] right up until the point when he doesn’t.”

Bolton’s belief is that, in the end, Trump won’t run and risk another defeat. On this point, the signs seem mixed. Trump has been coy. He gave an interview to Fox News earlier this month saying he would “probably” wait until after the midterm elections to announce whether he’ll run, though he added, “I think a lot of people will be very happy, frankly, with the decision.” He’s lost some weight, perhaps an indication that he’s girding for one more race, or maybe just the natural result of less stress-eating, as some in his orbit told me.