One way to keep restive Dems in the fold is to give them something to be opposed to—and that’s sorely missing for Biden. From about two weeks into his presidency, Trump’s approval was low and his disapproval high, but those numbers remained largely stable. That’s because unlike Biden, Trump was good at keeping his base riled up. He always gave them someone to be angry at. Biden isn’t a rabble-rouser, though the same dynamic helped him in 2020. When he was least visible, he was most popular, and many Democrats said they were more energized to beat Trump than elect Biden.

This is an age of affective partisanship, where politics is driven to a dangerous degree by antipathy for the other team. But Biden doesn’t have a convenient villain now. Democrats tried to make the Virginia gubernatorial race about Trump but still lost. Republicans, now on the margins, feel persecuted and riled up, but when a party controls the White House, House, and Senate, its supporters tend to get complacent. If Biden doesn’t turn around his approval quickly, Democrats will soon have plenty of opportunities to feel their own sense of disaster and persecution, though by then, that will be small consolation.