Part of this is obviously concern that Trump will push to oust independent-minded legislators in next year’s primaries. Trump has announced a wide range of efforts to that end; several members of Congress targeted by Trump have announced that they won’t run in 2022. (One, Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio) specifically cited the physical threats he’d faced as a rationale for not running again.)
But often the concern appears to be rooted not in what Trump has said he will do but in what legislators perceive as the will of Trump’s base. We’ve moved from an era in which Republicans learn to respect the power Trump has to move his voters to an era in which they act in anticipated response to those voters even independently of how Trump is directing them.
It’s fair to wonder how sustainable this effort might be. A legislator can be a Republican in good standing one day and, because they supported a bill negotiated by Republicans that would increase funding in their districts, they suddenly emerge as an enemy of the right and an ally of socialism. Efforts to enforce loyalty often collapse when they overspill their obvious boundaries. It’s easy to see how another few responses like the one to the infrastructure vote might pose that risk.
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