Don't trust the polls: Pollsters are increasingly unable to predict American thought

Poll respondents lying to surveyors is no new thing. Back in 1982 Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American, lost his race to be California’s governor, despite being shown consistently ahead in the polls.

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If that were not enough proof to pollsters that people would lie to them in order to convince their questioners that they are not racist, the gubernatorial camping of Douglas Wilder in Virginia in 1989 also showed the African American candidate with a solid lead. Yet, he only won by a mere half of 1%.

Those contacted by phone seem to believe that they are being judged by the caller. Rather than risking to appear racist for not professing support for a Black candidate, or feeling “shy” about admitting to be a Trump supporter, they don’t admit their real preference. Even worse, many people on the right may even refuse to be polled by a representative of the “lame stream media.”

High refusal rates force pollsters to use statistical models to simulate the views of the nonresponders. They have also come to depend too heavily on those whom they calculate to be “likely voters” and don’t account for those occasional voters who will come out to use their vote as a gesture of protest. Pollsters basically have no idea who is actually going to show up on Election Day.

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