In 2024, any candidate losing by a close margin could call the whole caucus vote rigged — as Trump did after losing the 2016 caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) — and declare themselves the legitimate winner. In a county where a candidate performed below expectations, local party officials could be overwhelmed with campaign lawyers demanding to “stop the steal.” Having faced vote counting and reporting challenges in three consecutive caucuses, Iowa is ripe for this kind of attack.

A candidate who, in reality, finished narrowly in third place in any contest could deny that reality by calling themselves the victor or runner-up. Their opponents could do the same — leading to a state-by-state campaign that essentially tears down what’s left of GOP confidence in our electoral system. Indeed, in some cases, this may be what a candidate’s base expects and demands from them: This past summer, when Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin still trailed Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe in most polls in the Virginia gubernatorial race, a supporter pressed him to promise not to concede if he lost. (Youngkin refused to promise that, saying he expected to win.)

Something like that would cause chaos far outstripping the momentary uncertainty of the 2016 GOP convention, where Republican National Committee leadership struggled to maintain a working process in the face of potential challenges to Trump’s nomination. It could lead to ugly scenes and potential violence surrounding state election boards, state capitols or local voting sites. And would the party, be it national, state or county, side with a candidate who legitimately won in one state but declared fraud in another? How would it be handled if multiple candidates cried fraud in multiple states?