While the GOP is widely favored to take back the House, McCarthy needs a majority of votes on the floor in early 2023 in order to ascend to speaker. The minority leader’s math problem is simple: The fewer seats Republicans pick up in the midterms, the more powerful his skeptics will become.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, said the number of seats the GOP picks up next year will matter “big time” for McCarthy’s speakership dream: “Five or eight [pick-ups] is a whole different ball game than 20 to 30.”…

Interviews with more than 40 Republicans, both inside and outside the conference, point to two worrisome factions for McCarthy in a future vote for speaker: conservatives and wild cards. As assiduously as the affable 56-year-old has fundraised and recruited to turn the House red, he’s expending just as much effort to please both the often-unruly right without alienating the handful of centrists whose support he may need.