For 2026, the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury projects to 2.6 percent versus the current 1.5 percent, with the interest cost of the debt rising to $524 billion. For 2030, it’s 2.8 percent and $829 billion, respectively.

Now, we are talking about real money. Just to put $829 billion into perspective, in 2020, the United States spent $714 billion on defense, $769 billion on Medicare, and $914 billion on all nondefense discretionary spending. Back-of-the-envelope calculations strongly suggest that some spending categories will have to give.

Finally, we come to the heart of the issue. The United States is experiencing an inflationary surge caused fundamentally by the injection into the economy of trillions of dollars—stimulus and other spending—without an accompanying production of goods and services that might be purchased with the new dollars. It’s rising demand plus troubled supply.

These forces will be with us until the stimulus dollars work their way through the economy and the federal government stops printing more money. It’s painful to large categories of people and beneficial to only a few. Those seeking to borrow or who don’t have their wages adjusted must cut back, manage resources, and find ways to conserve cash.