Biden's economic agenda wasn't designed for shortages and inflation

Mr. Obama’s economy suffered from a lack of demand; Mr. Biden’s suffers from a lack of supply. Businesses were closed because of the pandemic, supply chains are stretched because of changes in consumption patterns, and millions of workers have dropped out because of Covid-19, child-care issues or stimulus money. So Mr. Biden’s stimulus, by pouring more demand into a supply-constrained economy, fed inflation. How much is hard to say, but Republicans and even some Democrats such as West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin have eagerly made the connection.

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Mr. Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure framework and what the White House calls the “Build Back Better” social and climate plan weren’t intended to address inflation, but he is now framing them that way. The infrastructure bill, Mr. Biden said Wednesday, will “reduce these bottlenecks, and make goods more available and less costly.” Build Back Better “will get more Americans working by reducing the cost of child care and elder care,” while easing health and drug expenses.

But some of the benefits are years away, and the near-term impact could be to aggravate inflation. In their early years both plans add to the deficit, according to congressional scorekeepers, thereby injecting additional stimulus into the economy. Moody’s Analytics predicts the two bills will raise economic growth over the next three years, yet also boost inflation an average of 0.3 percentage point.

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