The most immediate impact of the results is the recruiting bump that Republicans will receive. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu now looks like an inevitable challenger against Sen. Maggie Hassan, a race that would be at the top of the GOP target list if the well-liked governor jumps in. In Pennsylvania, decorated military veteran and business executive David McCormick is considering getting in the Senate race, a decision that would shake up a moribund primary field where the Trump-endorsed candidate, Sean Parnell, is beset by ugly allegations of domestic abuse.
Meanwhile, Republicans are still working to convince Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey to reconsider getting into the Senate race, another contest where the Republican field of candidates is underwhelming. One Republican familiar with Ducey’s thinking told National Journal there’s a one-in-four chance he jumps in, but acknowledged that his frosty relationship with Trump would still present problems in a primary. Even popular Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is being wooed by GOP leaders for a race against Sen. Chris Van Hollen, though any Republican would face long odds in such a blue state.
In a red-wave scenario, the caliber of GOP candidates isn’t as consequential, especially in Republican-leaning states. Herschel Walker brings a lot of baggage into Georgia’s Senate race, but the state’s political mood is much friendlier to Republicans than it was at the beginning of the year. The bar now looks a lot lower for defeating Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who has toed a liberal line during his first year in the Senate. Nevada is now a bona fide battleground, especially given the GOP’s inroads with Hispanic voters. And even without Ducey in Arizona’s Senate race, it’s plausible that a mediocre Republican candidate could ride the tide, even against a talented and well-funded incumbent like Sen. Mark Kelly.
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