Trump is right that McAuliffe tried to motivate voters with the bogeyman of the former president, and face-planted. The flip side is that Youngkin was not eager to have Trump rally for him. Youngkin managed a nuanced act of not snubbing Trump voters while also modulating his message in a way that would win over suburban moderates, as I wrote yesterday. When Steve Bannon hosted a rally for Republican candidates, to which Trump called in, Youngkin made sure he was elsewhere. The Washington Post reports today that Youngkin and Trump spoke on the phone repeatedly during the campaign, but tellingly, no one leaked that information until the votes were in…

A hint will come in how Youngkin governs. If he behaves in office like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has courted Trump comparisons, that will suggest the former president maintains his grip on the party. But Youngkin could also govern more moderately, suggesting that he could appeal to Trump voters without being in thrall to them. That would be more in keeping with his political persona before this election, and perhaps prudent, given Virginia’s blue lean, though its one-term gubernatorial limit means he won’t have to face voters again in 2025.

The bigger indication will be what becomes of those suburban voters. If it is true that Democrats were merely renting them in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race, 2018 midterms, and 2020 presidential race, what remains to be seen is whether they belong to the Republican Party or if they’re still available for lease. The political direction of the country could hinge on how they behave in 2024 if Trump is back on the ballot. Will he still be toxic enough to push them away, or will they have forgiven and forgotten by then?