“When the Terry team tries to blame the national environment, let’s remember their grand strategy after Youngkin was nominated was to call him ‘Trumpkin,’” a Democratic aide said. “His people spent way too much time on Resistance Twitter and it shows.”

The nomination of a fixture of the Democratic establishment—a former governor, Democratic National Committee chair, and lifelong operator—also struck many Democrats, in hindsight, as a misread of the moment. Youngkin, a former private equity CEO, successfully campaigned as an outsider and suburban dad despite his political connections and $400 million net worth.

Multiple Democratic aides lamented, in hindsight, the near-anointing of McAuliffe—hailed as a “safe choice” shortly after a safe choice won the White House—when there were two Black women with strong resumes running in the Democratic primary against him.

Another Democratic aide told The Daily Beast that Trump’s influence on the race, positively or negatively, was at best secondary to the historical trend of Virginia’s off-cycle elections going against the party in power, and the nomination of an unprepossessing candidate.