Looking over the last two presidential elections, Virginia has been about 5 points to the left of the nation.

A close result would be — and the tightening of the polls already is — a sign that Biden’s slagging popularity is having an impact on down-ballot Democrats. McAuliffe’s lead has disappeared as Biden went from having a positive net approval rating (approve – disapprove) in the state to a -7 net approval rating on average during October.

A tight outcome would also signal that Democrats cannot count on former President Donald Trump to bring down Republicans too much. Trump is more unpopular than Biden is in Virginia and nationally. McAuliffe has tried to tie Youngkin to the former President, while Youngkin has had to walk a tightrope by distancing himself from Trump but still leaning into some of his rhetoric to motivate the GOP base.

McAuliffe’s efforts have not precluded Youngkin from having a shot at winning. Nor is the shadow of Trump seeming to keep Republicans from having a turnout advantage. Normally, Republicans have a turnout advantage in off-year elections with a Democratic president, but there has been some thought that Trump could keep Democrats energized.