By contrast, China’s hypersonic missile test is a bauble. Yes, it orbited the planet before plunging to its target, but it missed the target by 24 miles. Yes, such a weapon—if it were improved—could evade our missile defenses, but a much better way of doing that would be simply to fire two warheads at our most highly valued targets, since our defenses have never been tested against two incoming warheads at the same time. (Even in the one-on-one tests, our systems have succeeded less than half the time.) Finally, this technology is nothing new. The Russians developed the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System decades ago, but gave it up after the U.S. put up satellites that could warn of a missile attack from all angles. The U.S. worked on a similar contraption, but stopped after realizing it would provide little extra value at stupendous cost. If the Chinese want to waste their money now, let them.

However, the specter of China’s accomplishment, though shrug-worthy by objective measures, will certainly boost the political fortunes of the Pentagon’s ambitious plans for “nuclear modernization.” The U.S. is presently developing new models for its entire nuclear “Triad”—weapons launched from land, sea, and air that include a new ICBM, a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, and a new bomber aircraft, as well as a new cruise missile and various new warheads and bombs. The projected cost of building these weapons is $1.3 trillion over the next 30 years, though several senior Pentagon officials and Biden himself are known to be leery of modernizing all three legs of the Triad. Even if China’s hypersonic test had been successful and significant, it would not justify any, much less all, of these new nuclear weapons.