Finally, the driver that is likely to influence not only the outcome of the race but the impact of the other factors is the big slide in Biden’s job approval, both nationally and in Virginia, especially with independents. In the two polls cited earlier, Suffolk put his overall job approval at 42 percent approve to 52 percent disapprove. Among independents, Biden has sunk to a disastrous 32 percent to 57 percent approval-disapproval. Emerson’s numbers were equally bad. Democrats ought to be alarmed by what is a huge drop, especially among the independents he won handily less than a year ago. This makes Biden’s Tuesday night appearance with McAuliffe a bit of a head scratcher. Even McAuliffe himself admitted Biden wasn’t popular in Virginia.

Biden’s campaign stop, however, may pale in comparison to the national news coverage of Democrats in disarray that is likely to dominate the media in the final days of the race. Even worse, they will see the president and much of his Cabinet not on the job dealing with the issues that matter most to Americans but talking climate change in Scotland.

Democrats, led by Biden, have created a national environment under which Republican candidates can expand their coalition of support — and this is exactly what Youngkin has done. McAuliffe made his own contribution to what is now a competitive race with his ham-fisted debate performance and a less-than-stellar campaign that evidently didn’t expect a serious contest.