Speaking of Donald Trump, I’ve continued to emphasize that Biden’s only real mandate was to not be Trump. This meant a return to normalcy. This meant calming things down, bringing people together, and creating a more tranquil nation. This meant being more honest and empathetic. This meant being competent. Unfortunately, none of those things materialized, which helps explain why his polling with independents mirrors Trump’s. When Quinnipiac looks at Biden’s personal traits, only 49 percent say he “cares about average Americans.” Just 44 percent say he’s honest, and a mere 41 percent say he has good leadership skills.

Some of this is normal and to be expected. Presidents always have a tendency to over-interpret their mandate. And presidents are generally rebuked during their first midterm election. Following Trump, Biden—billed as a highly experienced politician who also was a centrist—was supposed to avoid this trap.

All he had to do was keep the implicit promises his campaign made to voters. Remember, Biden won the 2020 election by making inroads with traditionally center-right constituencies—as opposed to winning by juicing traditionally Democratic constituencies. Based on that knowledge, you would think he would attempt to govern in a manner that would keep this coalition on board. Instead, he made a huge mistake and decided to bet big on progressivism—he was lured by the hope of being the next FDR or LBJ but also plagued with a razor-thin majority.