No reconciliation bill could be "too small"

When pressed, Manchin likes to describe the spree he has in mind as “targeted” and “paid for.” But even if this were true — even if every dollar spent were matched to a dollar raised by taxation — it would still miss the point. The United States is $28.8 trillion in debt, and, with every year that goes by, its situation gets worse. This year’s budget deficit is forecast to be more than $3 trillion, and the projected deficit for every year after that is $1.1 trillion. If Manchin were serious about his desire to “pay for the essential programs, like Social Security and Medicare” and to limit our spending to “what we need and can afford,” he would either be seeking to kill the reconciliation bill entirely or insisting that his fellow Democrats limit their ambitions to an increase in taxation, with the proceeds to be used to reduce our endless budget deficits. Instead, he’s playing along with the progressives’ ruse.

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Manchin’s plan makes even less sense in light of his other grave concern, which is inflation. “Suggesting that spending trillions more will not have an impact on inflation,” Manchin wrote last week, “ignores the everyday reality that America’s families continue to pay an unavoidable inflation tax.” This is true, of course. But it is only half of the problem. The other half is what happens if, in an attempt to fight the very inflation that Manchin fears, the Federal Reserve is obliged to jack up interest rates, with the knock-on effect of making our existing federal debt payments a lot less manageable than they currently are. I have no doubt that Joe Manchin is sincere in his desire to keep the reconciliation bill debt-neutral. But he must surely understand that if the federal government raises taxes by $2 trillion now, it will make it much harder to raise $2 trillion in the future should we genuinely need to. Were Manchin insisting that such an increase go toward repaying the debt, he would have a case. But he’s not. Indeed, his plan is to spend every last cent.

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