Xi forcefully declared that resolving “the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China,” warning that anyone who tries to stop them, “will find themselves on a collision course with a great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people.” The matter of Taiwan is a highly charged emotional and political issue for Xi and millions of Chinese citizens. There is likely little they would not sacrifice to achieve their objective of reunification.
While America does remain the only truly global superpower, we are not militarily omnipotent. Our Armed Forces are spread out on hundreds of bases in Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and other locations—the U.S. troops stationed nearest Taiwan are in Okinawa, about 1,000 miles away. Virtually all of China’s maritime, air, and missile forces are concentrated on its east coast, 100 miles away from Taiwan. Even with the full commitment of all our Asian allies – no sure bet when it comes to actually fighting a war – China would have a tactical advantage over us. Thus, our ability to stop a determined Chinese assault of Taiwan is likely insufficient.
Lastly, while taking Taiwan is a desire of most Chinese mainlanders, militarily defending the island is at best a distant interest of many in the U.S. If war is truly a contest of wills – and it is – all evidence suggests the Chinese people are far more willing to make enormous sacrifices to capture Taiwan.
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