The midterms are a long way off, and the 2024 presidential election is the political equivalent of a lifetime away. Biden’s legislative agenda could quickly shift from teetering on failure to being a resounding success.

But voters have looked at Biden’s management of immigration and the border and crime and gun violence, as well as the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the pandemic and find it, to varying degrees, wanting. Confidence in Biden’s competence, a core advantage over Trump, has taken a major hit. And that’s before a government shutdown or a default at a time when Democrats control the White House and Capitol Hill.

All is not yet lost. The last two Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, endured early setbacks, including the loss of their congressional majorities in their first midterm elections, only to win re-election. And Republicans haven’t quit Trump, who may still be the party’s 2024 nominee. So perhaps simply being preferable to Trump is the only edge Biden will ever need.

But for a president who wants to walk in the footsteps of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson, more than being “not Trump” is likely to be necessary at some point — soon.