With voting underway in Virginia, Democrats say that external factors are not trending in McAuliffe’s direction. Biden’s approval rating has plummeted into the mid-40s nationally amid a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and resurgence of coronavirus infections. A Washington Post-Schar School poll this month found that a minority of Virginia voters, 46 percent, approved of Biden as president, while 51 percent disapproved. Independents, who backed Biden by 19 points in exit polls in November, supported Youngkin by a margin of 52 percent to 44 percent among those likely to vote.

Biden campaigned for McAuliffe this summer, and White House aides have left open the possibility of a return trip, according to officials with knowledge of the White House view who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss planning. But some of the former governor’s allies say Biden doesn’t pack the punch he did as a surrogate as recently as a few months ago, when his approval rating was stronger and steadier.

“I think Biden’s poll numbers are dragging McAuliffe down,” said John Morgan, a Florida trial lawyer who gave $100,000 to McAuliffe’s campaign and was a major Biden donor. “I think when voters see dysfunction, they tend to look at parties, and go, ‘The Democratic Party is dysfunctional. You know, why not give somebody else another chance?’ And so, I worry for Terry.”…

White House officials are watching the race closely, cognizant of the major problems a defeat could pose heading into 2022. Publicly, they have sought to project confidence and distance the president from what is happening on the ground. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the White House does not see the race as a referendum on Biden’s agenda.