Biden’s game plan: Get an agreement framework from Manchin and Sinema soon so he can show progressives there is a path forward on reconciliation. The White House is hoping such a framework can convince progressives to then back the bipartisan infrastructure bill, even if it means the vote on reconciliation comes later. Key to that is a commitment from the president and Democratic leadership that they would push through a social spending plan before year’s end, two people familiar with the White House’s thinking said.

It’s a gamble. House progressives have pledged to tank the infrastructure bill unless the president’s proposal to reshape the social safety net passes first. Rather than whipping them to fall in line, the White House is betting it can move them to a “yes” vote by getting clear answers from the moderate West Virginia and Arizona senators — two of the party’s most unpredictable members.

“It’s really hard for the White House to issue anything when you have members of the caucus who won’t say what it wants,” one of the people familiar with the White House thinking said. “You can’t start coming up with a bill when you don’t know what the number is.”