The University of Mary Washington poll conducted Sept. 7-13 found the Republican businessman ahead of Mr. McAuliffe, the state’s former governor, by 48% to 43% with likely voters in a blue-trending state that Mr. Biden carried in 2020 by 10 percentage points.

The down-ticket Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general also held narrow leads over their Democratic competitors ahead of the Nov. 2 election, according to the survey of 1,000 Virginia residents, including 528 likely voters.

The University of Mary Washington poll conducted Sept. 7-13 found the Republican businessman ahead of Mr. McAuliffe, the state’s former governor, by 48% to 43% with likely voters in a blue-trending state that Mr. Biden carried in 2020 by 10 percentage points.

The down-ticket Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general also held narrow leads over their Democratic competitors ahead of the Nov. 2 election, according to the survey of 1,000 Virginia residents, including 528 likely voters.