In fact, the patchwork of policies and what some have derided as “moving the goalposts” are not surprising. New data constantly become available and circumstances change, and so must our responses. The situation is akin to the way that our automobile navigation systems work. When you start the journey, the device gives you an estimated time of arrival (ETA) and plots the route, but they can change according to various unplanned occurrences—if you encounter a traffic accident or an opened drawbridge, for example.

The operative concept for managing the pandemic, or any medical problem, for that matter, can be summarized in a single phrase: minimizing the probability of adverse outcomes. But we, as individuals, public health officials and political leaders have widely differing tolerance for risks. And the risk-related circumstances vary widely in different states and localities; one size doesn’t fit all.

We know that there are various “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs) that can significantly lower the likelihood of contracting or spreading COVID-19. These include wearing a mask, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, practicing social distancing, washing hands frequently, improving ventilation, and of course, getting vaccinated.