On climate, that’s about to change. House committees have now marked up the key pieces of climate policy. And with the Senate’s return this week, all eyes will once again be on JOE MANCHIN, the coal-state Democrat who, as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, is responsible for writing the single most important piece of climate legislation. It’s a bill that could determine whether the United States meets an aggressive emissions-reduction target scientists say is needed to avert a global catastrophe (no pressure).

Climate policy can be thought of as a math problem. President Biden has committed the U.S. to reducing carbon emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. The whole ballgame for Democrats is putting together a package in reconciliation that achieves as much of that 50% goal as possible. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER recently said that the menu of policies put forward by Democrats, including in BIF, would get the United States to 45%.

But there are really only two major policies to watch because together they provide some two-thirds of the carbon reductions in the bill. So while there are a lot of interesting and important side debates about a Civilian Climate Corps, agriculture conservation and even the proposed methane polluter fee, these are the two to keep an eye on…