Meanwhile, a very different group of post-9/11-era thinkers regards China hawkishness as a dangerously self-fulfilling prophecy — a way to blunder, like the Bush-era neoconservatives Colby once critiqued, into an unnecessary and disastrous war. Rather than the old establishment’s maximalism, they prefer minimalism, an end even to the light-footprint forms of warcraft attacked by Samuel Moyn of Yale in his new book “Humane” — an interesting accompaniment and counterpoint to Colby’s — and a deliberate retreat from empire. (The idea that climate change requires conciliation with China also looms large for some in this group.)

The minimalist group has the least influence in Washington, but its skepticism about warmaking has a lot of popular support — including skepticism about war with China. Even with Beijing’s increased belligerence and its Covid cover-ups, a survey in the summer of 2020 found that only 41 percent of American favored fighting for Taiwan, a lack of enthusiasm confirmed in informal surveys of almost everyone I know.

But Beijing’s own choices will also shape our strategy. A China that retreats somewhat, post-Covid, from bellicosity and border skirmishes would defang the China-hawk argument quite a bit.