Democrats also are aware that the ranks of the fearful and possibly angry vaccinated include a disproportionate percentage of seniors and college-educated people, who are the most likely to vote in non-presidential elections like the California recall or next year’s national midterms. It’s not safe to assume that all vaccinated people will embrace mandates (which is where these predictions of this being a 75-25 winning proposition for Biden come from), but it’s not unreasonable to think that on balance it represents smart politics for a president who’d rather be talking about fighting COVID-19 than about not fighting the Taliban or about Democrats fighting with each other over his domestic agenda.

A major question I have is whether in their rush to show how determined they are to defend the God-given freedom of Americans to infect oneself and others with a lethal disease, Republican pols and opinion leaders are in danger of unleashing some dark and disruptive forces. When Vance and others started talking about “massive civil disobedience” or pledging non-compliance with the mandate, they brought in the rhetoric of the January 6 insurrectionists with whom they may begin to merge in the public consciousness, particularly if you-know-who smells the tear gas in the air and joins the demands for a rebellion. Nothing would help Joe Biden or his party more in the midterms if it becomes not a referendum on the first two years of his presidency but a referendum on those who continue to reject the legitimacy of the current occupant of the White House.