New poll finds Newsom could easily beat recall thanks to motivated Democrats

According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll cosponsored by the Los Angeles Times released Friday, 60.1% of likely voters surveyed oppose recalling Newsom compared with 38.5% in favor of ousting the governor. Fewer than 2% of likely voters remained undecided or declined to answer, suggesting the issue is largely settled in the minds of California voters.

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The findings, which were gathered by pollsters between Aug. 30 and Sept. 6, align with results from a batch of recent independent polls, all of which showed a decisive advantage for Newsom as the Sept. 14 recall election approaches.

A poll by the Berkeley institute just six weeks ago found that likely voters’ opinions were almost evenly split, a vulnerability for Newsom that at the time appeared to be driven mostly by the indifference many Democrats expressed about the recall.

Since then, Newsom’s campaign worked feverishly to redefine the recall campaign as a referendum on “Trumpism,” an effort aided greatly by the emergence of conservative talk show host Larry Elder, a loyalist to President Trump, as the clear favorite to become California’s next governor if the recall is successful.

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