The reason why passing the bills was always going to be a challenge is of course that Democratic margins in Congress are extremely narrow, with no room for error, and the party’s progressive and moderate wings disagree on a lot. With the head of the party commanding strong public support and working hard to get the bills passed, the prospects for passage would be decent. But with his support sinking? That’s a situation primed to expose fissures in the party, with each faction fearing electoral consequences in November 2022 more than it dreads the wrath of an enervated White House.

In that case, one would expect to see both the left-wing and moderate factions of the party doing whatever they can to prevail but willing to go down fighting rather than compromise and alienate voters they will need to be energized on Election Day 2022. If the bills go down to defeat, at least each faction will be able to say to its base, “I did everything I could, and I never gave up fighting for what’s right.”

A Biden who presides over such a debacle will look enfeebled, with dangerous political consequences — much as Bill Clinton’s early effort to pass health-care reform crashed and burned, setting up historical Republican gains in the 1994 midterm elections.

This implies that Biden would be better off with the two bills passing, since that would give him a solid legislative victory. Yet that is far from clear. If the bills pass in anything like their current form, moderates will likely face an angry electorate next year.