Remember what happened when Trump ran in 2015 and 2016? He repeatedly encouraged his supporters both tacitly and explicitly to physically attack the demonstrators who showed up at his rallies. One study found a link between his rallies and reported assaults.

That was when he was a candidate on his way to losing the popular vote by a bigger margin than any elected president in history. In 2020, he received more votes than any prior incumbent president, as he will be the first to mention. This is in part a function of population growth, but it’s also a function of his building more energetic support during his time in office. It’s a base that’s comfortable with Trump’s dishonesty and conspiracy theories in a way it wasn’t in 2015. It’s a base whose energy manifests in large rallies at which attendees berate the media. It manifested on Jan. 6 at his rally at the White House and at the Capitol. It manifests in the response to the arrests that followed the Capitol riot and in the emerging argument that those who were arrested are the equivalent of political prisoners. Law enforcement is warning about the danger of an upcoming D.C. rally centered on those arrests.

Trump has always been as much a follower of the fringe right’s obsessions as a driver of them. He won in 2016 in part because he reflected the complaints of the far-right back at them, unbound by the political propriety of doing so. He is championed by extremist groups such as the Proud Boys in part because they see him as a vehicle for their desired outcomes, not because he inspires the outcomes they seek. His 2016 election helped the illiberal far-right establish a beachhead in traditional politics, and he spent four years expanding that. The aftermath of his loss has not seen the Republican establishment retake that terrain but, instead, a further expansion of his claims and territorial disputes over what he commanded.